Investigation of the time-history of the covid-19 pandemic in Hungary by sigmoid curves

Comparison of several waves

Absztrakt

Sigmoid curves are multidisciplinary curves, because they are used in many fields of life (economy, statistics, engineering, product design, iteration history curves of optimization algorithms, environmental science, health sciences, etc.) for the investigation and prediction of many phenomena. In this paper the history of COVID‑19 infection in Hungary from March 2020 until June 2023 is investigated by sigmoid curves. Since the pandemic had several waves, by analysing the sigmoid curves of each waves it is possible to compare their characteristics. This comparison can lead to interesting new conclusions, for example it is possible to define the “mutation delay” and the comparison of this delay of several waves can show the effect of vaccination. Comparing the derivatives and integrals of the sigmoid curves, more conclusions can be drawn. In the days when this paper is written, the relevance of these investigations and comparisons may increase again, because of new and aggressive COVID variants, BA.5 or JN.1. In case of appropriate data, it would be possible to compare the curves of these variants and other waves, which could give useful information about intensity, aggressivity, or mortality of the waves.