The anticipated position of the Hungarian budget and the elements of uncertainty of the financial period of 2004-06.

Abstract

The main aim of the essay is to fulfill the script-analysis of financial transfers on macro level related to Hungarian accession within the formulated interest - like the subvention of democratic transition, the recruitment of relationship with transborder Hungarians, the possibilities of the widening of national clout.

Obviously that one of the most important parts of the Hungarian integration interests is the financial possibility derives from the Structural and Cohesion Policy of the EU and the Hungarian-EU Treaty on Accession.

Beside the basic financial data of the Treaty there are some factors that (may) correct the EU–Hungarian budgetary balance. This essay intends to collect the possible positive (VAT and other taxation impacts of the applications) and negative (customs duty, Schengen-compatible borderguards, CAP co financing, financial participation in the EU institutions, costs of the new institutions in Hungary and abroad etc.) budgetary effects and to build models of scenarios (successful or less successful outcomes) in the 2004-2006 financial period.

According to the results of the survey in conformity with the two model-calculations the Hungarian macro level net budget balance considerating the pre-accession funds of the available tender source at 20%, leaving out of consideration the pre-accession funds of the available tender source at 30% consumption rate the balance can be seen as positive.