Analysis of the time history of the COVID-19 pandemic by sigmoid curves II.

Comparison of more waves

Abstract

The first part of this paper studied the time history of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary, Italy and China (Wuhan) by comparing the logistic curves of the number of deaths in fuction of time. In the present paper only Hungary will be studied. When the first part of this paper ended, we were at the end of the first wave of the pandemic, but it was clear that the second wave will arrive soon to Hungary, too. This leads to the necessity of the investigation of bi-logistic, tri- logistic or for several waves the multiwave logistic curves. Comparing the parameters in the equations of the curves and regarding the derivative and integral of the curves, detailed comparison is possible between the waves of the disease. On the basis of the results of this comparison, the officials in charge of pandemic could derive useful conclusions concerning the possible maximum number of disease cases or deaths and on the prognosis of the future behaviour of the desease. The results achieved during these investigations could be very useful for the study and forcast of some important phenomena of several different areas too, because the multidisciplinarity of the sigmoid curves is very large.