Analysis of the time history of the COVID-19 pandemic by sigmoid curves

Abstract

Sigmoid curves are ables to describe several phenomena of our life, they have extremely large and wide application fields. The number of contaminated persons and deaths because of the COVID-19 (other names: nCoV-2019, SARS-COV-2) in function of the time are also sigmoid shape curves. These curves have three important characteristic parts: first part is the „overwhelming” growth, or non-limited growth, the second part is when the growth is limited or disturbed and the third part is a saturation part. Since we were living personnally the COVID-19 pandemic, for all of us was observable all the three characteristic parts of the curves. In this paper the number of the deseases and deaths is investigated on the basis of the officially presented numbers by China (Wuhan, deaths, from 17th of January until 30th of May 2020), Italy (deaths, from 22nd of February until 12th of July, 2020), Hungary (deseases, from 4th of March until 12th of July, 2020) and Hungary (deaths, from 15th of March until 12th of July, 2020), by detecting the numbers every day and this way building the curves. All these curves are sigmoid shape curves, so called logistic curves. On the basis of the better knowledge of these curves, it is possible to apply the recently developed EBSYQ (Evolutionary Based System for Qualification of Group Achievements) curve analysis system, which is able to compare and analize every phenomena having growth or saturation behaviour. It is able also to predict the future of these cases. Comparing the data of several countries, it could be possible to derive interesting conclusions.