Competitiveness and government spending in Cambodia: An autoregressive distributed lag approach

Authors

  • Leanghak Hok University of Miskolc

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18096/TMP.2020.02.03

Keywords:

Competitiveness, public investment, government consumption, ARDL approach, Cambodia

Abstract

In the globalization age, global competitiveness is gaining attention from policymakers and scholars. This paper focuses on a measurement of trade competitiveness based upon the expansion of market size. Fiscal policy has become a subject of debate since the global crisis of 2008. This paper attempts to examine the influence of government spending (i.e., government investment and consumption) on trade competitiveness. The Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approach is used to estimate the dynamic relationship. The result, based on Cambodia's annual data from 1970 to 2015, shows that Cambodia’s trade competitiveness increases when there is a rise in public investment, government purchases, or aggregate private spending. This study shapes an alternative perception of the effectiveness of fiscal policy as domestic expenditure in enhancing international macroeconomic activities.

Author Biography

Leanghak Hok, University of Miskolc

Ph.D candidate

References

ABBAS, S. M. A. L. I., BOUHCA-HAGBE, J., FATÁS, A., MAURO, P., & VELLOSO, R. C. (2011). Fiscal Policy and the Current Account. IMF Economic Review, 59(4), 603–629. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2011.22

ADB. (2018). ADB forecasts robust growth for Cambodia, sees risks to competitiveness. Retrieved April 10, 2019, from ADB website: https://www.adb.org/news/adb-forecasts-robust-growth-cambodia-sees-risks-competitiveness

AKAIKE, H. (1977). On entropy maximization principle. In P. R. Krishnaiah (Ed.), Application of Statistics (pp. 27–41). Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing company.

BAILY, M. N., & SLAUGHTER, M. J. (2008). Strengthening U. S. competitiveness in the global economy. Washington, D.C.: Private Equity Council. Retrieved from http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/matthew.slaughter/pdf/PECouncil_rpt_1208.pdf

BAXTER, M., JERMANN, U. J., & KING, R. G. (1998). Nontraded goods, nontraded factors, and international non-diversification. Journal of International Economics, 44(2), 211–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00018-4

BOUAKEZ, H., & EYQUEM, A. (2015). Government spending, monetary policy, and the real exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 56, 178–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.09.010

BREUSCH, T. S., & PAGAN, A. R. (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287–1294. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963

BROWN, R. L., DURBIN, J., & EVANS, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x

CANN, O. (2016). What is competitiveness? (27 Sep 2016) World Economic Forum website. Retrieved April 19, 2018, from: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/what-is-competitiveness/

CATÃO, L. A. V. (2007, September). Why real exchange rates? Finance and Development, 44(3), 46–47. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/09/pdf/basics.pdf

CÉSPEDES, L. F., FORNERO, J., & GALÍ, J. (2012). Non-Ricardian aspects of fiscal policy in Chile Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 663, Central Bank of Chile. Retrieved from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6654271.pdf

CHEN, Y., & LIU, D. (2018). Government spending shocks and the real exchange rate in China: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model. Economic Modelling, 68, 543–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.027

CHINN, M. D. (1999). Productivity, Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate Evidence for OECD Countries. In R. MacDonald & J. L. Stein (Eds.), Equilibrium Exchange Rates (Vol. 69, pp. 163–190). /https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-4411-7_6

COENEN, G., & STRAUB, R. (2005). Non-Ricardian households and fiscal policy in an estimated DSGE model of the Euro area. Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 (No. 102), Society for Computational Economics.

CORESTTI, G., MEIER, A., & MÜLLER, G. J. (2012). Fiscal stimulus with spending reversals. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 878–895. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00233

DABLA-NORRIS, E., BRUMBY, J., KYOBE, A., MILLS, Z., & PAPAGEORGIOU, C. (2012). Investing in public investment : An index of public investment efficiency. Journal of Economic Growth, 17(3), 235–266. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-012-9078-5

DE GREGORIO, J., GIOVANNI, A., & WOLF, H. C. (1994). International evidence on tradables inflation and nontradables. European Economic Review, 38, 1225–1244. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(94)90070-1

DELLAS, H., NEUSSER, K., & MANUEL, W. (2005). Fiscal Policy in Open Economies. Working Paper, Department of Economics (Switzerland: University of Bern).

DI GIORGIO, G., NISTICÒ, S., & TRAFICANTE, G. (2018). Government spending and the exchange rate. International Review of Economics and Finance, 54, 55–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.07.030

DICKEY, D. A., & FULLER, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

DORNBUSCH, R. (1975). Exchange Rates and Fiscal Policy in a Popular Model of International Trade. The American Economic Review, 65(5), 859–871.

DURBIN, B. Y. J., & WATSON, G. S. (1950). Testing for serial correlation in Least Squares Regression : I. Biometrika, 37(3), 409–428. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/37.3-4.409

ENGLE, R. F., & GRANGER, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236

FLEMING, J. M. (1962). Domestic financial policies under fixed and under floating exchange rates. Palgrave Macmillan Journals on Behalf of the International Monetary Fund, 9(3), 369–380. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866091

FORSYTH, P., & DWYER, L. (2010). Exchange rate changes and the cost competitiveness of international airlines: The Aviation Trade Weighted Index. Research in Transportation Economics, 26(1), 12–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2009.10.003

GRANGER, C. W. ., & NEWBOLD, P. (1973). Spurious regressions in eocnometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470996249.ch27 https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7

JARQUE, C. M., & BERA, A. K. (1987). A test for normality of observations and regression residuals. International Statistical Review, 55(2), 163–172. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403192

JENKINS, G. P., KUO, C.-Y., & HARBERGER, A. C. (2011). Cost-benefit analysis for investment decisions: Chapter 11 (Economic prices for non-tradable goods and services). In JDI Executive Programs (No. 2011–11). Retrieved from https://cri-world.com/publications/qed_dp_204.pdf

JOHANSEN, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3

JOHANSEN, S., & JUSELIUS, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x

KIM, S. (2015). Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate. Journal of International Economics, 97(2), 436–447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.07.007

KIRCHGÄSSNER, G., WOLTERS, J., & HASSLER, U. (2013). Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis (2nd ed.). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33436-8

KOLLMANN, R. (2010). Government purchases and the real exchange rate. Open Economies Review, 21(1), 49–64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-009-9148-2

LIPSCHITZ, L., & MCDONALD, D. (1992). Real exchange rates and competitiveness. Journal of European Economics, 19(1), 37–69. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00924805

MAKIN, A. J., & RATNASIRI, S. (2015). Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example. Economic Modelling, 49, 154–161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.003

MANKIW, N. G. (2012). Principle of Macroeconomics (6th ed.). Mason: South-Western Cengage Learning.

MARTO, R. (2014). Assessing the impacts of non-Ricardian households in an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model. Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, 150(4), 353–398. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03399411

MAVROTAS, G., & KELLY, R. (2001). Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing causality between savings and growth. The Manchester School, 69(s1), 97–105. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.69.s1.6

MONACELLI, T., & PEROTTI, R. (2010). Fiscal Policy, the real exchange rate and traded goods. The Economic Journal, 120(544), 437–461. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02362.x

MUNDELL, R. A. (1963). Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates. The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29(4), 475–485. https://doi.org/10.2307/139336

NAGAYASU, J. (2017). Global and country-specific movements in real effective exchange rates: Implications for external competitiveness. Journal of International Money and Finance, 76, 88–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.05.005

NBC. (2015). Exchange rate policy. Retrieved April 8, 2018, from National Bank of Cambodia website: https://www.nbc.org.kh/english/monetary_policy/exchange_rate_policy.php

NKORO, E., & UKO, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63–91.

OBSTFELD, M., & ROGOFF, K. (1995). Exchange rate dynamics Redux. Journal of Political Economy, 103(3), 624–660. https://doi.org/10.1086/261997

PESARAN, M. H., & SHIN, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In S. Strøm (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (pp. 371–413). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011

PESARAN, M. H., SHIN, Y., & SMITH, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

PHILIPS, P., & PERRON, P. (1988). Biometrika trust testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nf1045

PLOBERGER, W., & KRÄMER, W. (1992). The CUSUM test with OLS residuals. Econometrica, 60(2), 271–285. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951597

QUALITY OF GOVERNMENT INSTITUTE. (2019). QoG Standard Data. Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Retrieved June 12, 2019, from https://qog.pol.gu.se/data/datadownloads/qogstandarddata

RAVN, M. O., SCHMITT-GROHÉ, S., & URIBE, M. (2007). Explaining the effects of government spending shocks on consumption and the real exchange rate (No. 13328), NBER Working Papers. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w13328 Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w13328

SACHS, J. D., & LARRAIN, F. B. (1993). Macroeconomics in the Global Economy (1st ed.). New Jersey: Prentice Hall. (pp. 657-671)

SAMUELSON, P. A. (1984). Theoretical notes on trade problems. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 46(2), 145–154. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928178

SCHWAB, K. (2017). The Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018. Geneva, Swizerland: World Economic Forum.

SCHWARZ, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461–464. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176344136

SHAHbAZ, M., HYE, Q. M. A., TIWARI, A. K., & LEITÃO, N. C. (2013). Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO 2 emissions in Indonesia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 109–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.04.009

TODA, H., & YAMAMOTO, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8

WOLDE-RUFAEL, Y. (2005). Energy demand and economic growth: The African experience. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(8), 891–903. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2005.06.003

WORLD BANK. (2015). Maintaining high growth: Cambodia economic update (No. 95982). Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/881041467999363660/pdf/95982-REVISED-WP-PUBLIC-Box391435B-Cambodia-Economic-Update-April-7-2015-Final.pdf

Downloads

Published

2020-12-15

How to Cite

Hok, L. . (2020). Competitiveness and government spending in Cambodia: An autoregressive distributed lag approach. Theory, Methodology, Practice - Review of Business and Management, 16(02), 27–40. https://doi.org/10.18096/TMP.2020.02.03