Empirical Analysis of the Wagner Hypothesis of Government Expenditure Growth in Kenya: ARDL Modelling Approach


  • John Kibara Manyeki University of Szeged
  • Balázs Kotosz University of Szeged




Wagner’s hypothesis, ARDL model, Kenya


Government spending patterns in developing countries have changed dramatically over the last several decades. This paper aims at analysing the relation between government expenditures (GE) and economic growth in Kenya. The study focuses on testing the various versions of Wagner’s hypothesis using Kenya, data from 1967-2012 by an Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Overall, we conclude that the Musgrave version is best suited for Kenyan cases since it produced significant long-run and short-run results that were accepted by diagnosis and stability tests. The results rejected Wagner’s hypothesis in Kenya.

Author Biographies

John Kibara Manyeki, University of Szeged

Ph.D student

Balázs Kotosz, University of Szeged

Associate Professor


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How to Cite

Kibara Manyeki, J. ., & Kotosz, B. (2017). Empirical Analysis of the Wagner Hypothesis of Government Expenditure Growth in Kenya: ARDL Modelling Approach. Theory, Methodology, Practice - Review of Business and Management, 13(02), 45–57. https://doi.org/10.18096/TMP.2017.02.05